North Korea: Kim Jong-un as Leader
How Pyongyang may change
Hosted by: Australian Institute of International Affairs, Sydney
The event will start on: Tuesday, 21 February 2012 6:30 PM
And will end on: Tuesday, 21 February 2012 7:30 PM
At The Glover Cottages, Sydney
Posted by: nsw
Only when an opposition group brings down Kim Jong-un will reform and opening up of North Korea become possible...
Professor Cal Jian, Fudan University
It could be up to two or three years before it becomes clear (if Kim Jong-un will develop as a leader in his own right [sic])
Professor Leonid Petrov, University of Sydney
While it is absolutely necessary to co-ordinate and get ready for reckless moves from North Korea, the United States and its regional allies must tread carefully...
Professor Wenran Yang, University of Alberta.
Ironically, Kim Jong Il’s death may make Korea the land of the morning calm for at least a year, during which political transitions will also occur in China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and the United States...
Professor Peter Hayes et.al, The Nautilus Institute
Evidently, opinions differ as to what will be the eventual outcome of the death of North Korea’s Kim Jong-il and the official transfer of power to his third son, Kim Jong-un.
In an essay in the Sydney Morning Herald, AIIA member Hamish McDonald explores a range of possibilities. Apart from the possibility of change within the Pyongyang regime itself, there are the complex attitudes and strategic interests of the various powers involved in on-off talks to bring peace to the Korean peninsula and persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.
China fears a surge of refugees across its border if hostilities break out and worries that the United States could gain a foothold on its border. Japan is uneasy about the industrial muscle of a united Korea while other countries see investment and market opportunities. No one, however, wants to see a destabilisation of the peninsula - how the DPRK manages itself under its new leadership and how the regional powers engage the regime is crucial to this end.
Few expect any change to happen quickly. The AIIA in Sydney has assembled a panel of experts to discuss one of the top agenda items of 2012.
Joining us will be Professor Leonid Petrov, lecturer in Korean studies at the University of Sydney and Korean scholar who trained at the Institute of Oriental Studies in St Petersburg. Prof. Petrov has also held the chair in Korean studies at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris.
Mack Williams was Australia’s ambassador in Seoul at the time of the last North Korean handover. Mr Williams is a former president of the AIIA in Sydney and chairman of the board of the UTS Insearch program. He also chairs the Korea-Australasian research Centre at the University of New South Wales.
Professor Peter Hayes from the Nautilus Institute will join us by video link from San Francisco. Prof. Hayes’ paper on North Korea has attracted international attention.
Refreshments served from 6pm
Entry Fee: Members: $15.00 Senior/Student members $10.00 Guests $20.00
PLEASE REGISTER ON LINE
July 2008 - June 2009 Past Events (