The Changing Military Balance in Asia

Julia Gillard has taken her first big step into foreign policy by commissioning Ken Henry to review Australia’s ties with Asia. The former secretary to the Treasury will advise the government early next year on how Asia’s rapidly changing environment will impact us, and what we should do about it.

This move has has not pleased everyone. The Australian’s foreign editor, Greg Sheridan, called it “bizarre”. “Instead of the four-millionth inquiry into what Asia means for Australia, how about some actual policy? Instead of talking about it, for god's sake, just do it.”

Sheridan has a point. Australia is severely under-represented in Asia. In the last budget it abolished its funding to encourage the study of Asian languages. In four years, he says, a Labor prime minister has spent just one day in India, whose economy will grow to the present size of China’s by the end of this decade.

Others, including many in business, welcome the move. John McCarthy, AIIA national president, believes the review could be a first step in reshaping our relationship with Asia. He told the Sydney Morning Herald Australia was not paying anything like enough attention to the region.

“It’s not just China and the US”, he said, a reference to the well-publicised argument advanced by Hugh White that Australia may have to decide between its leading strategic partner and it main trading partner. “There’s a whole dynamic of movement in the region”, citing Japan, India and Indonesia.

The AIIA in NSW, starting next Tuesday, is running a three-part series of discussions on the changing Asia region. On Tuesday October 11 we will look at the strategic challenges posed by a more assertive China, a reinvigorated India, and worried SE Asian nations.   What will be the response of the United States, as it prepares to start leaving Afghanistan?  What will be the impact of the recent US decision to provide more arms to Taiwan?

This discussion will be led by Nate Hughes, director of military analysis at Stratfor, a US-based startegic intelligence company, referred to by Barrons magazine as the “private CIA”.

In subsequent weeks we shall focus on politics and the economy, and on the current direct dialogue with China on a variety of pressing issues.

Please come and join in the debate.