Address Taster:
In September 2008, after brutal reprisals by Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF regime had stolen the presidential election run-off from Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change, the parties reluctantly signed a Global Political Agreement (GPA). It installed Mugabe as executive president of an 'Inclusive Government', and made Tsvangirai Prime Minister.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders who brokered the GPA saw rewarding the loser as the only way to avoid continued bloodshed, but also included some political reforms in the agreement. Initially unwilling to press Mugabe to carry out his reform commitments, SADC leaders are starting to become impatient. The key issue is whether they can foster an environment for free and fair elections, which could be held as soon as next year.
Meanwhile the workings of the inclusive government too often resemble a daily war of attrition between the parties. Nevertheless, there has been a marked reduction in violence across most of the country and hard-won progress on the economic front.
The international community's financial and travel sanctions against senior Mugabe regime members remain in place, because there is still no credible sign of a commitment to sustained change in behaviour. SADC governments take the view that sanctions are counter-productive, but despite that difference in view, Australia and other major donors to Zimbabwe consult productively with South Africa and other SADC governments over the way forward. Australia is one the top five bilateral aid donors and a leader in aid effectiveness.
When will we see a 'Zimbabwe Spring'? Crystal-ball gazing is a game for the foolhardy, but SADC's increased assertiveness, the MDC's sheer guts and persistence, and the ability of the average Zimbabwean voter to see that the emperor has few clothes are reasons to believe that Mugabe's political structure of fear, force and corruption will eventually crumble. However, the dissolution of a regime and a political culture created over decades of pre-liberation conflict and cemented by three decades in power will not proceed as quickly as the North African Springs.
Biography:
John Courtney was Australian Ambassador to Zimbabwe from 2007 to January 2011. He was there during the campaign of brutality that Robert Mugabe unleashed in April-June 2008 to ensure that Morgan Tsvangirai's embarrassing win in the first round of the presidential election in March was not repeated.
In the ensuing two years, John had a ringside seat as the Global Political Agreement (GPA) was brokered, which provided for a framework of reform and a coalition government, but allowed Mugabe to retain the levers of hard power. Together with South Africa, other SADC members and many of the wider international community, Australia worked hard to help keep GPA implementation going. The economy was key, and Australia ramped up its aid effort quickly and innovatively in just a few years. It was, and remains, a fascinating period for Australian policy.
Before his Zimbabwe posting, John Courtney was Consul-General in Guangzhou, Counsellor (Political) in Beijing and had postings in Malaysia, New Zealand and Saudi Arabia. His home assignments included Director of the Policy Planning Section.
He retired from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade at the end of his Zimbabwe posting.
July 2008 - June 2009 Past Events (