Taiwan waits and hopes for the best
Hosted by: AIIA NSW
The event will start on: Tuesday, 16 August 2011 6:00 PM
And will end on: Tuesday, 16 August 2011 7:30 PM
At The Glover Cottages, Sydney
Posted by: nsw
Presented by Professor Richard Rigby & Colin Chapman
During the days of what was called the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, China's chairman Mao Zedong used regularly to insist "we will recapture Taiwan". Later, in negotiations with US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, which led to American recognition of Communist China, Mao said of the offshore island, "I do not believe in peaceful transition...they are a bunch of counter revolutionaries". He then added that China could "do without Taiwan for the time being", even if it meant waiting for 100 years.
38 of those years have passed and almost every country in the world, at the very least, accepts that Taiwan is part of mainland China.
The problem is, Taiwan isn't part of mainland China. Taiwan, under the protection of the United States, still runs its own agenda, and has become a prosperous and dynamic Asian tiger. It takes good care not to upset Beijing, and has reaped the benefits from doing good business with the Chinese giant, welcoming increasing numbers of Chinese tourists.
China has also seen the benefits of huge investments from Taipei, as well as a useful transfer of technology. So, for the present, it suits both sides to keep things sweet.
But questions remain:
What happens if the Chinese economy grows, as some believe, to become larger than that of the United States?
With China building up its navy, and launching its first aircraft carrier, how much of a threat is this to Taiwan's sea lanes, and would the US come to its defence if it were attacked?
Most countries have continued to trade with Taiwan, but will this continue if Beijing attempts to persuade them not to?
And, if things go bad in China, leading to instability, will the Chinese cause a distraction by resorting to the old threats?
Learn more about the immediate outlook for Taiwan from two AIIA members, recently returned from a fact finding trip to the island.
Professor Richard Rigby is executive director of the China Institute at the Australian National University. Richard joined Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs in 1975, where he worked until the end of 2001: postings included Tokyo, Beijing (twice), Shanghai (consul-general 1994-1998), London, and Israel (ambassador, 2000-2001). He then joined the Office of National Assessments as assistant director-general, responsible for North and South Asia, where he worked until taking up his current position in April 2008.
Colin Chapman is vice president Asia Pacific of Stratfor, a specialist geopolitical intelligence company. Prior to joining Stratfor, Colin was director of broadcasting at the Financial Times, and an economics correspondent with BBC and CNN. He is the president of the AIIA NSW in Sydney.
Cost: AIIA members $15; Senior members / students $10; Visitors $20; Senior Visitors $15
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