The Rise of China: What do the Big Ideas tell us?

Hosted by: Australian Institute of International Affairs in Sydney

The event will start on: Tuesday, 21 June 2011 6:00 PM

And will end on: Tuesday, 21 June 2011 7:30 PM

At The Glover Cottages, Sydney

124 Kent Street , Sydney NSW

02 9247 8504     nswexec@aiia.asn.au

Posted by: nsw   

There has been much talk of late about how China’s rise will affect international relations. Two big ideas dominate this discussion. 

Realists believe that China will increasingly challenge American and Western, especially American, dominance and that this will be a cause of instability, even conflict. Hugh White's Quarterly Essay reflects this view.

 Liberals argue that China’s increasing engagement with the world, especially in the area of trade, will be a source of stability: China will reap the commercial benefits of the existing global order and will be keen to support the norms, rules and institutions that are part of it.

The liberal view is a comforting one, but in assessing it, there are some important things to look for. First, the Communist Party of China has staked a lot on the free market: the leadership’s very legitimacy depends almost entirely on delivering better standards of living for the Chinese people.

But what if the global system fails to deliver the goods? How might this affect the attitude of the Chinese people and its leaders? Second, the liberal thesis assumes that the free market will encourage democracy in China and that this is to be welcomed, not just because of its obvious benefits for the Chinese people, but also, because it expands the zone of the “democratic peace” globally. But arguably, the free market is not leading to democracy in China – at least, not for the moment. Indeed, some commentators have argued that China is increasingly looking like an “authoritarian capitalist” state. Third, the norms of the global order that China seems most likely to embrace are those that seek to reinforce sovereignty and non-intervention. But ironically, these are precisely the norms that are being challenged by Western initiatives, especially in the area of human rights.

Realist and liberal theories are useful in helping us understand “how the world hangs together”, but they leave much out of account, in particular: the importance of domestic politics; the relationship between domestic and international politics; and, the power of ideas. We need to be aware of all this in assessing the dominant theories about the rise of China.

To lead us through this debate we welcome back one of the the University of Sydney's leading scholars, Dr Robert Howard. 

Dr Howard researches aspects of the history of international relations in the twentieth century, with special reference to developments in international security. He is currently focusing on international security issues in the post-Cold War era and the role, at this time, of the United Nations.

He is also interested in developments in the international economy since 1945 and the impact of these on domestic economies and polities. Other interests include international relations theory and developments in contemporary Australian politics and society. He is a former editor of the Current Affairs Bulletin.

He is an active member of the AIIA, and recently accepted an invitation to join our council, in which he plays a prominent part. 

Background reading and viewing:

Power Shift, by Hugh White, Australia's Future between Washington and Beijing.

Australia-China 2, by Kevin Rudd, foreign minister.

Tech-savvy Beijing plays Big Brother, by Greg Sheridan, The Australian.

Asia's Quiet Anger with Big, Bad China, by David Pilling, Financial Times

Vietnam and China: Oil Clashes Intensify, Financial Times report

VIDEO Challenges Facing China's leadership. Rodger Baker, Stratfor