Fault Lines in the World Economy

Hosted by: australian Institute of International Affairs in Sydney

The event will start on: Tuesday, 24 May 2011 6:00 PM

And will end on: Tuesday, 24 May 2011 7:30 PM

At The Glover Cottages, Sydney

124 Kent Street , Sydney NSW

02 9247 8504     nsw.branch@aiia.asn.au

Posted by: nsw   

On the surface, the figures all look good. The Financial Times reports that Australia has staged a strong recovery from its summer of natural disasters, recording a $1.74 billion trade surplus for March - three times that forecast. “Deepening trade ties with Asia, particularly China, are helping to underwrite the Australian economy, which is now in its 20th year of uninterrupted growth”, says the world’s respected business newspaper.

And last week’s Federal Budget, with its highly optimistic forecasts, was predicated on the good times continuing, particularly in China, and a strong global economic recovery from the last difficult three years.

But will they? Could Wayne Swan and his Treasury advisers be seeing the world through rose-colored spectacles?  The FT’s chief economic commentator, Martin Wolf, argues that the economies of many countries are “faltering in a stormy sea of debt.” We know who they are. The United States, the United Kingdom, some European economies, and many others.

Next Tuesday the AIIA will take a cold, hard look at the state of the world economy, and at what impact it is likely to have on Australians in the second half of this year. Chinese growth is slowing; if this trend continues, what does that mean for us? What will be the impact of the traumatic events in Japan? There is unease in Wall Street about the strength of US recovery, and the size of the deficit. And in Europe, questions have again been raised as to whether the euro can survive the strain of potential defaults by Greece and Portugal.

We will be guided through this global maze by Stephen Long, the economics correspondent of the ABC. Stephen is the ABC's Economics Correspondent, and a journalist with almost a quarter of a century of experience.

It was Stephen who, last week, described the much-heralded ‘tough budget’ as “ tough as tofu”. Unlike many investment analysts, Stephen also foresaw the Global Financial Crisis of 2009.

At the ABC, he has  provided reports and analysis for various outlets including AM, PM, The World Today and ABC TV's Four Corners, Lateline and Lateline Business.

He came to the ABC after seven years as a senior reporter and columnist on the Australian Financial Review, where he covered industrial relations, labour market economics and the changing nature of work. He has also worked for The Sydney Morning Herald and AAP; and as managing editor of a specialist business publisher.

In 2006 and 2007, he filed a series of reports warning about the growing risks in financial markets. In June 2007, Stephen accurately predicted that the world was heading for a global credit crash as banks and hedge funds suffered massive losses on investments backed by bad debts and collapsing US mortgages.

This will be a rare opportunity to meet one of Australia’s most respected commentators.