Beyond the Egyptian euphoria

Hosted by: Australian Institute of International Affairs in Sydney

The event will start on: Tuesday, 15 February 2011 6:00 PM

And will end on: Tuesday, 15 February 2011 7:30 PM

At The Glover Cottages, Sydney

124 Kent Street , Sydney NSW

02 8011 4728     nsw.branch@aiia.asn.au

Posted by: nsw   

Mubarak's departure: the consequences for the Middle East

Hosni Mubarak was removed from power in Egypt because the military came round to the protesters' views. So far all that has happened in Cairo is that an ailing president and his deputy are gone. The protesters appear to believe that their demands for reform and the end of emergency rule will be swiftly met, but this may not happen quickly, or at all.

A careful reading of the statement published by the military at the weekend indicates that although there will be significant steps towards new democracy, the priority is to clear the streets, restore order, and have people cooperate with the police. It could be that the military, for its own purposes, was prepared to tolerate criticism of Mubarak, but may be less tolerant of further protests against itself.

For six decades, since the overthrow of King Farouk, Egypt has been ruled by emeshed military and civilian elites. That will not change overnight. 

Shashank Joshi, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence think-tank, told the

Mohamed Tantawi is the head of the Higher Military Council. 

BBC this weekend: "The army has hedged its bets in masterful fashion over the last two weeks, appearing to side with protesters but remaining passive in the face of regime-sponsored violence and accepting Mubarak's desultory promises of reform until this was no longer tenable.

"This is because the military establishment stands to suffer enormous losses, in both financial and political terms, from genuine democratic reforms.Moreover, if a future government seeks to chart an independent policy towards Israel or Hamas, the military will be loath to jeopardise its flow of US aid."

 One of the most significant aspects of the Egyptian military's weekend statement was to state categorically that the 1978 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel and the US " remains intact". 

To assess the Middle East’s future, AIIA NSW has invited one of Australia’s most experienced Middle East hands to present his analysis. He has been a frequent commentator on ABC Radio during the uprising.

Dr Anthony Billingsley worked for Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and other government agencies in the Middle East before joining the regional desk of the Office of National Assessments.  He subsequently was employed in the private sector in the Arabian Gulf, before taking a doctorate in Middle East Studies at Macquarie University. He is now lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of New South Wales. Find out more about him.