Could a change of leader change North Korea?

Hosted by: Australian Institute of International Affairs, NSW

The event will start on: Tuesday, 21 September 2010 6:00 PM

And will end on: Tuesday, 21 September 2010 7:30 PM

At The Glover Cottages, Sydney

124 Kent Street , Sydney NSW

02 8011 4728     nsw.branch@aiia.asn.au

Posted by: nsw   

North Korea is set to witness the process of only its second transition of power in 60 years. Most Korea-watchers see the imminent convening of the Korean Workers’ People’s Congress as a move to pave the way to designate Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il’s twenty-something son, as his successor. View video analysis

Kim Jong-il earlier this month visited Beijing, meeting President Hu Jin Tao, in a trip that was seen by many analysts as seeking the approval of North Korea’s ally for this nepotistic move. There have been unconfirmed reports that Kim Jong-un was with his father.Subsequently China's premier Wen Jiabao dismissed these reports as "a false rumour from the west". Certainly it is not likely to happen immediately, but planning appears to have begun.

The Chinese have said very little about the succession, but Beijing has expressed support for a resumption of the stalled six nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear future, with the prospect of finding a way to end the pariah state’s isolation. This is seen as essential if there is to be any prospect of reviving Pyongyang’s crippled economy.

In contrast with the North,  South Korea continues to thrive on its manufacturing economy, but is nonetheless deeply affected by the current strains, and by the sinking of the Cheonan warship, an inquiry into which is soon to conclude. Japan also remains at risk and concerned by the lack of resolution to the Korean conflict. The United States still has 28,500 forces tied up in Korea, including nearly 9000 USAF personnel.

Come and hear Dr Leonid Petrov, a leading expert on North Korea.

Dr Leonid Petrov is an authority  on Korea and has been a lecturer in Korean studies at the University of Sydney since 2009.  He is executive director of the International Association for Contemporary Korean Studies.

Prior to coming to Sydney, he worked as associate researcher on the Australian Research Council project “Historical Conflicts and Reconciliation in East Asia”, and held the chair of Korean Studies at Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques, Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris in France.

He broadcasts on the Russian services of SBS and on Al Jazeera. A full biography can be read here.

The meeting will be chaired by Geoff Miller, a former Australian ambassador to South Korea, and national vice-president of the AIIA.