Arab Spring Falters as an Icy Chill Returns

By Amal Varghese

The last eleven months have blown winds of change across the Arab world not seen since the end of colonial rule. Syria, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Yemen and Iran have all been affected in some way or another.

In Syria, over 4,000 people have been killed according to the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) prompting harsh economic sanctions by the Arab League on Assad’s brutal regime. In Yemen, long-time dictator of more than 30 years, Ali Abdullah Saleh has signed a deal to relinquish the presidential office on the 23rd December 2011 after wide-spread protests against his government. Libya’s Gaddafi was mercilessly killed by the opposition movement during the NATO-backed operation and his heir apparent, Saif –al Gaddafi is due to face trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) on crimes against humanity, provided Libya’s National Transitional Council cooperates with the ICC. In Egypt, the military has been heavily criticised for cracking down on civilians, particularly during the ongoing parliamentary elections, the first ‘free and fair’ elections since Mubarak’s departure according to international observers.

Elsewhere in the Arab world, currents have not been strong enough to substantiate significant political reform. Morocco’s king gave up some constitutional powers including the power to appoint the prime minister who would appoint senior servants, diplomats, even cabinet members but would still have to consult the king’s ministerial council. In any case, in both Egypt and Morocco, the youth have criticised the parliamentary elections as window-dressing because major decisions would continue to run through the King, in the case of Morocco and the army in the case of Egypt.

In the same way the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran changed the geopolitical dynamics of the region, 2011 has the immense potential to be seen both as the year democracy and optimism took hold in the Arab world or it may come to be seen as the year that caused vast amounts of bloodshed in an already troubled region. For all the optimism that the Arab Spring had promised, it has also caused significant loss of life and chaos in the region. Only time will prove whose side history will be on, but either way history will be written and the status quo will be revised. Now it’s a matter of who wins the largest portion of the spoils. It is clear that most of the youth and liberal protestors that were at the core of the revolutionary movements will feel robbed as the largest beneficiaries of the revolutionary movements’ to-date have been the Islamic parties, particularly in Egypt where the Muslim brotherhood and even Salafist parties have gained a significant portion of the vote. This will surely worry many Western observers who do not wish Egypt to follow the Iranian example of an Islamic state.

There is an inherent tension in Western interests between the Mubarak and Zinadine-era stable and secular states versus the newly democratically elected Islamic parties who may shun the West in an environment featuring chaos and economic stagnation. The Arab Spring turned winter should be viewed with caution particularly as Assad’s regime continues to quash dissenters in the streets of Damascus and Homs. As Libya struggles to form a credible democratic government, the West would be wise to restrain from supporting any further military action in the Arab world.

 

Amal Varghese is completing a Masters in International Relations at the University of Melbourne, is the Melbourne Bureau Chief of the Asia-Pacific Youth Organisation, Consultant for the Australia-India Youth Dialogue and a freelance journalist with The Drum at the ABC.

Further Reading:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-the-hope-of-the-arab-spring-the-chill-of-an-arab-winter/2011/11/28/gIQABGqHIO_story.html

The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East; Daniel Byman and Kenneth Pollack, 2011

The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next by Council on Foreign Relations/Foreign Affairs, 2011